My Triathlon Story In Numbers (& WTS London Race Report)

This post may be of particular interest to those who are just starting out in sport, those who want to improve, or those who are just curious about how certain people develop. It may also be of interest to those people (like myself) who like to look at numbers and data.

After briefly going through some of my past and present result highlights, I talk a bit about my race in the weekend, factors I believe have got me there, and then I end up with a table where you can calculate what race times and/or efforts you should expect.

But, before I get on with this, I have to say a huge THANK YOU to all those who came out and cheered for me, as well as those who have sent their messages of encouragement! Every one of you really made it that bit easier for me and made me go that bit quicker :)

With fellow Egyptian,
the phenomenal Moustafa Fawzy :)

I have just raced at the WTS London 2 days ago and, as I have been used to, I started looking at my race data, analysing every feeling I had during the race, and tried to get some lessons out of it to try and improve for the future. That, and to write a race report for your enjoyment, of course!

Yet, this time, I have taken a slightly different route to this. First, there weren't many things that went wrong during the race! This is something I'm not used to. I somehow felt very uncomfortable crossing the finish line with 23 seconds to spare from my planned target. For each leg of the race, I hit my targets spot on, without even being conscious of it during the race. This, by no means should mean that I am not trying to improve! Far from it! It just means that I am becoming better at understanding exactly where I am.

The way I did this was to do everything by numbers. I have a great mine of information and data to follow, I love to draw a graph or two, and love to fiddle around with huge Excel sheets. So, I have taken data from all the people I have been coaching over the past year, as well as data from myself and pro triathlete data I could get from sites such as Training Peaks, Ironman, and ITU, played around with training and racing figures, and reached some nice nifty formulae to work out paces, heart rates, and power outputs.

While doing this, I have had to look back at my very first races, and it just hit me how far I have come over the years, from my first sprint triathlon in 2005, until last month's Half Ironman and the race in London this weekend just gone. Here are some numbers:

- August 2005, sprint triathlon: 1:58.29

Swim: 20.29, Bike: 57.14, Run: 32.57, Feeling: crossed the line feeling like fainting.

- August 2006, standard triathlon: 3:24.44

Swim: 38.05, Bike: 1:30.22, Run: 1:09.48, Feeling: crossed the line with a fake smile and huge pain in my lower back.

- 2007-late 2011: No sports at all, and put on a tonne of weight (well, 25kg)

- July 2012, standard triathlon: 3:02.14

Swim: 24.44, Bike: 1:27.38, Run: 1:05.54, Feeling: cramped almost throughout all the race. Couldn't walk for a few days afterwards.

- May 2014, Half Ironman: 6:04.59

Swim: 35.25, Bike: 3:14.31, Run: 2:02.04, Feeling: could have done much better overall. Stopped for the toilet on the run as well! Very tiring but not debilitating.

- June 2014, standard triathlon (most recent): 2:34.37

Swim: 28.19, Bike: 1:11.24, Run: 47.24, Feeling: crossed the line looking for a friend who finished before me to get our photo taken together, then went for a little jog to loosen up my muscles.

The first question that I ask myself after every race is: could I have done better? For this race, well, sort of yes, but certainly not a definite yes! On the bike and run, I couldn't physically do more, but on the swim, I did hold back, and not just a bit. But, I'm not beating myself up over that one, because it could have potentially taken away from my performance on the bike and run later on anyway, but I definitely could have got a couple of minutes better without too much effort.

As for my bike, I just lack strength in my legs. There is no other way to look at it, and I can't even try and twist that one to sound better. The solution from my point of view is plain and simple: cycle much more, focus on threshold and hill sessions, and get in some lower body and core strength training. Not too complicated, but potentially painful, and I have to change a few things in my routine.

The run, I believe, is affected to a very great extent by my lack of strength on the bike. My legs cannot give more however much I try. This was especially pronounced during the Half Ironman earlier in May, so my expectation for this race was actually spot on, since I maintained a realistic view of where I should be. The main focus in my running, though, should be to get back to doing some speed work, after having put it on the backburner for the best part of a year to build up my endurance for the Half Ironman.

Transitions: I need to be quicker and more focused. They're getting better, but they can still be much faster.

Nutrition: Still very happy with this one, as I discussed this in my Mallorca race report. The only unfortunate, and frustrating, thing that happened during the race this weekend, though, was that there weren't enough people handing out water on the run! Only 2 people at each of the 2 aid stations! So, during my 4 laps, I managed to miss the water twice on the last lap, which was really crucial for me, since I tend to cramp easily. Fortunately, I had my little flask with my carb/salt mixture, but a cup or two of water would have made life much better (and less painful) for the last 2km. This is something I have to send the organisers a word about...

The factors that I believe were key to my improvement over time are:

1. Amazing family support that keeps me going!

2. Amazing friends (and fans!) support that keeps me motivated!

3. The scientific approach I have taken to my training. This started with using the right shoes and properly fitting equipment, to getting the expert opinions of doctors and professional athletes, to always developing my scientific knowledge for everything to do with training, and analysing numbers (and believing in what they say).

4. Dedication to training.

5. Understanding my body from a quantitative and a qualitative points of view, and "listening" to it.

6. Urge to always improve!

As my final part of this post is a list that you can use to calculate your race targets, please note the following:

1. The figures here are very broad targets, so they may not be very accurate and might not work exactly the same for everyone.

2. Ultimately, it all depends on your level of training and fitness, and how accurate the data you use is in the first place.

3. The figures reflect data analysis I have done on information I have gathered from 12 different individuals (including myself) over the past 12 months, with data extending a bit further back for myself, as well as data of professional triathletes gathered from sites such as Training Peaks, Ironman, and ITU.

Now for the meaty bit:

Start off by doing time trials as follows:

IMPORTANT: Please precede all these time trials with "proper" warm-up and end with proper cool-down and stretching!

- Swim: 15 minute TT (note the exact distance during the 15 minutes. Note average pace per 100m)

- Bike: 30 minute TT (note average heart rate, average power, average speed)

- Run: 5km TT (note time and average heart rate)

NOTES:

- Bike speed cannot be accurate, since each bike course can be very different, in terms of hills, curves, etc. But, it can be used to make a very rough estimate of your target race speed.

- Run speed can be somewhat accurate, especially on relatively flat courses with not too many hills.

- It is likely that the longer the race, the less you can do to actually be able to raise your heart rate above the mentioned ranges, even if you try! If they go above, it may be an indication of either that you are pushing too hard that you won't be able to complete the distance in a good time (or at all), or that you are dehydrated and need immediate intake of fluids and electrolytes.

- To achieve best results, I have found it useful to negative split the pace on shorter races, while on longer races, it is the effort that should be negatively split (i.e. starting on the lower end and ending up on the higher end of the range).

RACE TARGET RANGES:

Sprint Distance (Swim: 750m, Bike: 20km, Run: 5km)

* Swim:

. TT Pace -2 seconds/100m to -5 seconds/100m

* Bike:

. 93.70% to 96.23% of TT heart rate

. 89.40% to 94.00% of TT power (& average speed)

* Run:

. 97.06% to 99.41% of TT heart rate

. TT pace/km +4.04% to +1.88%

Olympic Distance (Swim: 1,500m, Bike: 40km, Run: 10km)

* Swim:

. TT Pace +3 seconds/100m to +1 second/100m

* Bike:

. 89.94% to 92.45% of TT heart rate

. 81.57% to 86.64% of TT power (& average speed)

* Run:

. 94.12% to 96.47% of TT heart rate

. TT pace/km +9.10% to +6.93%

Half Ironman (70.3) Distance (Swim: 1,900m, Bike: 90km, Run: 21.1km)

* Swim:

. TT Pace +9 seconds/100m to +4 seconds/100m

* Bike:

. 84.91% to 88.68% of TT heart rate

. 69.59% to 76.96% of TT power (& average speed)

* Run:

. 85.29% to 91.18% of TT heart rate

. TT pace/km +32.46% to +17.29%

Once again, the above are really rough estimates that have been built on data collected that could have some mistakes, but I have found it to work for me very accurately and observed it work with others whom I coach. So, I appreciate that it is very likely that this won't work for every person, and I'm always happy to hear your opinions and comments on these, as the more people get involved, the more accurate these should become, and the more useful these could be for others as well.